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Werribee City vs Melbourne City II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Werribee City
Werribee City
FT
3 – 2
Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
4/21/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 10Galvin Park Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Werribee City25%
×Draw22%
Melbourne City II53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werribee City
1.32
Melbourne City II
2.00

Melbourne City II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 39 away

creates per match

Werribee City
1.19
Melbourne City II
2.03

allows per match

Werribee City
1.98
Melbourne City II
1.46

finishing

Werribee City+0.00on par
Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werribee City ↓

Melbourne City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Werribee City or draw
47%
Werribee City or Melbourne City II
78%
Draw or Melbourne City II
75%

Winning margin

Werribee City wins by 2+
11%
Melbourne City II wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Werribee City 1+ goals
73%
Werribee City 2+ goals
38%
Werribee City 3+ goals
15%
Melbourne City II 1+ goals
86%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
59%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Werribee City (draw refunded)
32%
Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werribee City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werribee City attack 1.19 + Melbourne City II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Melbourne City II attack 2.03 + Werribee City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Werribee City scores more
25%
level
22%
Melbourne City II scores more
53%

Melbourne City II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Werribee City vs Melbourne City II

Werribee City beat Melbourne City II 3-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Galvin Park Reserve in Werribee.