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Melbourne City II vs Werribee City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Werribee City
Werribee City
6/1/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 16Casey Fields - Pitch 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Melbourne City II56%
×Draw20%
Werribee City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City II
2.38
Werribee City
1.53

Melbourne City II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 45 away

creates per match

Melbourne City II
2.42
Werribee City
1.29

allows per match

Melbourne City II
1.77
Werribee City
2.33

finishing

Melbourne City II+0.00on par
Werribee City+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City II ↓

Werribee City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Melbourne City II or draw
76%
Melbourne City II or Werribee City
80%
Draw or Werribee City
44%

Winning margin

Melbourne City II wins by 2+
35%
Werribee City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Melbourne City II 1+ goals
91%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
68%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
42%
Werribee City 1+ goals
78%
Werribee City 2+ goals
45%
Werribee City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
70%
Werribee City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Werribee City away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City II attack 2.42 + Werribee City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Werribee City attack 1.29 + Melbourne City II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Melbourne City II scores more
56%
level
20%
Werribee City scores more
24%

Melbourne City II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Melbourne City II 7–1 Werribee City

Melbourne City II beat Werribee City 7-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Casey Fields - Pitch 4 in Melbourne.