Werribee City 1–2 Kingston City: Result & Stats

Werribee City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kingston City

2/14/2026

Victoria Premier League 2 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Werribee City49%

×Draw23%

Kingston City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werribee CityExpected goals in this matchKingston City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.34

Werribee City

1.84

Kingston City

1.34

Werribee City creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.30

creates per match

0.88

1.80

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Werribee City

1.30

Kingston City

0.88

allows per match

Werribee City

1.80

Kingston City

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werribee City+0.00on par

Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werribee City ↓

Kingston City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Werribee City or draw

72%

Werribee City or Kingston City

77%

Draw or Kingston City

51%

Winning margin

Werribee City wins by 2+

27%

Kingston City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Werribee City 1+ goals

84%

Werribee City 2+ goals

55%

Werribee City 3+ goals

28%

Kingston City 1+ goals

74%

Kingston City 2+ goals

39%

Kingston City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Werribee City (draw refunded)

64%

Kingston City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werribee City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Kingston City away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werribee City attack 1.30 + Kingston City defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kingston City attack 0.88 + Werribee City defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Werribee City scores more

49%

level

23%

Kingston City scores more

28%

Werribee City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Werribee City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff