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Kingston City vs Werribee City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
2 – 1
Werribee City
Werribee City
3/4/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 4The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kingston City45%
×Draw22%
Werribee City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.97
Werribee City
1.69

Kingston City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Werribee City
1.29

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Werribee City
2.33

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Werribee City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Werribee City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
66%
Kingston City or Werribee City
78%
Draw or Werribee City
55%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
25%
Werribee City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
86%
Kingston City 2+ goals
58%
Kingston City 3+ goals
31%
Werribee City 1+ goals
82%
Werribee City 2+ goals
50%
Werribee City 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
57%
Werribee City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Werribee City away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Werribee City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.97

Werribee City attack 1.29 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kingston City scores more
45%
level
22%
Werribee City scores more
34%

Kingston City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kingston City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Kingston City 2–1 Werribee City

Kingston City beat Werribee City 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.