Werder Bremen 2–0 Eintracht Braunschweig

Werder Bremen

FT

2 – 0

Eintracht Braunschweig

8/9/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Weserstadion Platz 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Werder Bremen29%

×Draw23%

Eintracht Braunschweig49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder BremenExpected goals in this matchEintracht Braunschweig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.88

Werder Bremen

1.40

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.88

Eintracht Braunschweig creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

2.75

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Werder Bremen

1.80

Eintracht Braunschweig

2.75

allows per match

Werder Bremen

1.00

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Werder Bremen or draw

51%

Werder Bremen or Eintracht Braunschweig

77%

Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig

71%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

13%

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

75%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

41%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

17%

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

85%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

56%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

37%

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen attack 1.80 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 2.75 + Werder Bremen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Werder Bremen scores more

29%

level

23%

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

49%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff