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Eintracht Braunschweig vs Werder Bremen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
3 – 1
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
1/7/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig22%
×Draw19%
Werder Bremen59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.43
Werder Bremen
2.41

Werder Bremen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
2.00
Werder Bremen
3.71

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.11
Werder Bremen
0.86

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
Werder Bremen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Werder Bremen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
41%
Eintracht Braunschweig or Werder Bremen
81%
Draw or Werder Bremen
78%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
9%
Werder Bremen wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
76%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
42%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
17%
Werder Bremen 1+ goals
91%
Werder Bremen 2+ goals
69%
Werder Bremen 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
27%
Werder Bremen (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Werder Bremen away — creates 3.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 2.00 + Werder Bremen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Werder Bremen attack 3.71 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
22%
level
19%
Werder Bremen scores more
59%

Werder Bremen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Werder Bremen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Werder Bremen

Eintracht Braunschweig beat Werder Bremen 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.