Werder Bremen 5–1 Borussia Monchengladbach

Werder Bremen

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Borussia Monchengladbach

M. Weiser 73'

R. Bensebaïni 37' (OG)

N. Füllkrug 13', 5'

M. Ducksch 8'

M. Thuram 63'

10/1/2022

Bundesliga · Round 8wohninvest WESERSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Werder Bremen48%

×Draw24%

Borussia Monchengladbach28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder BremenExpected goals in this matchBorussia Monchengladbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.27

Werder Bremen

1.73

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.27

Werder Bremen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 38 away

1.55

creates per match

1.15

1.40

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Werder Bremen

1.55

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.15

allows per match

Werder Bremen

1.40

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.92

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Werder Bremen-0.30scores less

Borussia Monchengladbach-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen ↓

Borussia Monchengladbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Werder Bremen or draw

72%

Werder Bremen or Borussia Monchengladbach

76%

Draw or Borussia Monchengladbach

52%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

26%

Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

82%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

52%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

25%

Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals

72%

Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals

36%

Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

63%

Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.40 · 32 matches

Borussia Monchengladbach away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen attack 1.55 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.15 + Werder Bremen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Werder Bremen scores more

48%

level

24%

Borussia Monchengladbach scores more

28%

Werder Bremen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Werder Bremen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Füllkrug

Werder Bremen · F

9.3

Match Events

5'

N. Füllkrug↳ R. Schmid

8'

M. Ducksch

13'

N. Füllkrug↳ M. Ducksch

37'

R. BensebaïniOwn goal

39'

63'

72'

72'

73'

M. Weiser↳ N. Füllkrug

77'

L. Bittencourt← I. Gruev

77'

N. Rapp← C. Groß

77'

S. Lainer← J. Scally

77'

P. Herrmann← L. Stindl

83'

N. Ngoumou← C. Kramer

85'

N. Schmidt← M. Friedl

88'

R. Reitz← M. Koné

88'

L. Netz← R. Bensebaïni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WerderBorussia

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots13

4Corners5

8Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots13

8On Target8

5Off Target4

1Blocked1

10Inside Box11

4Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

450Total Passes502

373Accurate Passes426

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3

Bundesliga: Werder Bremen 5–1 Borussia Monchengladbach

Werder Bremen beat Borussia Monchengladbach 5-1 in Bundesliga on October 1, 2022.

Goals: N. Füllkrug (5', 13'), M. Ducksch (8'), R. Bensebaïni (37' o.g.), M. Thuram (63'), M. Weiser (73').

Borussia Monchengladbach controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bremen.

Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: Werder Bremen 5–1 Borussia Monchengladbach