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Borussia Monchengladbach vs Werder Bremen — Bundesliga 2026

Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
F. Neuhaus 73'
M. Thuram 48'
M. Ducksch 89', 65'
3/17/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 25Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Borussia Monchengladbach48%
×Draw24%
Werder Bremen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Monchengladbach
1.69
Werder Bremen
1.25

Borussia Monchengladbach creates 35% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 35 away

creates per match

Borussia Monchengladbach
1.53
Werder Bremen
1.05

allows per match

Borussia Monchengladbach
1.45
Werder Bremen
1.84

finishing

Borussia Monchengladbach-0.12scores less
Werder Bremen+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Monchengladbach ↓

Werder Bremen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Borussia Monchengladbach or draw
72%
Borussia Monchengladbach or Werder Bremen
76%
Draw or Werder Bremen
52%

Winning margin

Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+
25%
Werder Bremen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals
82%
Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals
50%
Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals
24%
Werder Bremen 1+ goals
71%
Werder Bremen 2+ goals
36%
Werder Bremen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
63%
Werder Bremen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.45 · 32 matches

Werder Bremen away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.84 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.53 + Werder Bremen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.69

Werder Bremen attack 1.05 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Borussia Monchengladbach scores more
48%
level
24%
Werder Bremen scores more
28%

Borussia Monchengladbach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borussia Monchengladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
J. HofmannBorussia MonchengladbachBorussia Monchengladbach · M
8.9

Match Events

48'
M. Thuram↳ J. Hofmann
63'
R. Schmid← N. Schmidt
63'
L. Buchanan← F. Chiarodia
65'
M. Ducksch↳ R. Schmid
73'
F. Neuhaus
76'
A. Pléa← M. Thuram
81'
Mitchell Weiser
81'
M. Philipp← I. Gruev
85'
H. Wolf← L. Stindl
87'
Florian Neuhaus
87'
E. Dinkçi← J. Stage
89'
M. Ducksch↳ N. Füllkrug

Possession

59%Borussia

Shots

21Borussia

Pass accuracy

53%Borussia

Statistics

BorussiaWerder
Overview
59%Possession41%
21Total Shots8
3.41Expected Goals (xG)1.25
6Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
21Total Shots8
9On Target3
9Off Target4
3Blocked1
10Inside Box7
11Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
535Total Passes370
455Accurate Passes273
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Bundesliga: Borussia Monchengladbach 2–2 Werder Bremen

Borussia Monchengladbach and Werder Bremen drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on March 17, 2023.

Goals: M. Thuram (48'), M. Ducksch (65', 89'), F. Neuhaus (73').

Borussia Monchengladbach controlled possession (59%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Mönchengladbach.