Werder Bremen U19 4–0 Niendorfer TSV U19

Werder Bremen U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Niendorfer TSV U19

K. Schneider 70'

K. Er 52'

J. Wulff 49'

M. Nawrocki 32'

10/26/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 9Weserstadion Platz 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Werder Bremen U1968%

×Draw16%

Niendorfer TSV U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder Bremen U19Expected goals in this matchNiendorfer TSV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

1.32

Werder Bremen U19

2.80

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.32

Werder Bremen U19 creates 112% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 29 away

2.53

creates per match

1.00

1.65

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19

2.53

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.00

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19

1.65

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Niendorfer TSV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw

84%

Werder Bremen U19 or Niendorfer TSV U19

84%

Draw or Niendorfer TSV U19

32%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

47%

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

94%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

76%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

52%

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

73%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

38%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.65 · 72 matches

Niendorfer TSV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.07 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.53 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.80

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

68%

level

16%

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

16%

Werder Bremen U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

K. Donalies← M. Schröder

32'

M. Nawrocki

46'

E. Mujkanovic← A. NLola Nankishi

49'

49'

52'

61'

65'

Belal Ahmadi← A. Cevdet

65'

T. Engelmann← A. Abdul Rauf

70'

K. Schneider

74'

F. Orlick← F. Straudi

74'

M. Lahrtz← M. Gries

Werder

Niendorfer

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Grote

29'▲K. Donalies←▼M. Schröder

46'▲E. Mujkanovic←▼A. NLola Nankishi

49'▲K. Er←▼M. Memišević

74'▲F. Orlick←▼F. Straudi

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

DonaliesMujkanovicErOrlickRosenboomGundelachSteinwedel

Manager: A. Prohn

61'▲A. Apau←▼H. Müller

65'▲Belal Ahmadi←▼A. Cevdet

65'▲T. Engelmann←▼A. Abdul Rauf

74'▲M. Lahrtz←▼M. Gries

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

ApauAhmadiEngelmannLahrtzBerendsohnWeberGumpert