Niendorfer TSV U19 1–7 Werder Bremen U19

Niendorfer TSV U19

FT

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 2

Werder Bremen U19

M. Zoch 31'

D. Philipp 90'

F. Mensah Quarshie 87', 46', 26'

I. Gruev 86'

Y. Engelhardt 76', 3'

3/16/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1920%

×Draw18%

Werder Bremen U1963%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSV U19Expected goals in this matchWerder Bremen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.67

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.46

Werder Bremen U19

2.67

Werder Bremen U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 71 away

1.00

creates per match

2.21

3.13

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.00

Werder Bremen U19

2.21

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.13

Werder Bremen U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw

37%

Niendorfer TSV U19 or Werder Bremen U19

82%

Draw or Werder Bremen U19

80%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

8%

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

77%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

43%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

18%

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

93%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

74%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 31 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.92 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.21 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

20%

level

18%

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

63%

Werder Bremen U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

26'

31'

46'

46'

61'

A. Hartmann← P. Rieckmann

64'

A. Altuntas← S. Omar

73'

F. Reinoss← M. Timm

73'

M. Dittmann← K. Schneider

76'

Y. Engelhardt

84'

F. Straudi← Y. Engelhardt

86'

I. Gruev

87'

F. Mensah Quarshie

88'

J. Wulff← M. Memišević

88'

L. Dettki← M. Schröder

90'

D. Philipp

Niendorfer

Werder

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Prohn

46'▲M. Akkus←▼J. Mensah

61'▲A. Hartmann←▼P. Rieckmann

64'▲A. Altuntas←▼S. Omar

73'▲F. Reinoss←▼M. Timm

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

AkkusHartmannAltuntasReinossCherifWeberDenis

Manager: M. Grote

73'▲M. Dittmann←▼K. Schneider

84'▲F. Straudi←▼Y. Engelhardt

88'▲J. Wulff←▼M. Memišević

88'▲L. Dettki←▼M. Schröder

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

DittmannStraudiWulffDettkiBuerIhorstLinkov

Match Recap: Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Werder Bremen U19

Werder Bremen U19 beat Niendorfer TSV U19 7-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 16, 2019.

Goals: Y. Engelhardt (3', 76'), F. Mensah Quarshie (26', 46', 87'), M. Zoch (31'), I. Gruev (86'), D. Philipp (90').

The match was played at Sportanlage Sachsenweg in Hamburg.

Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Werder Bremen U19