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Werder Bremen U19 vs Meppen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Werder Bremen U19
Werder Bremen U19
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Meppen U19
Meppen U19
2/28/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Werder Bremen U1956%
×Draw19%
Meppen U1925%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werder Bremen U19
2.54
Meppen U19
1.67

Werder Bremen U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 51 away

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19
2.53
Meppen U19
1.69

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19
1.65
Meppen U19
2.55

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par
Meppen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Meppen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw
75%
Werder Bremen U19 or Meppen U19
81%
Draw or Meppen U19
44%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+
36%
Meppen U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals
92%
Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals
72%
Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals
46%
Meppen U19 1+ goals
81%
Meppen U19 2+ goals
50%
Meppen U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Meppen U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.65 · 72 matches

Meppen U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.53 + Meppen U19 defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.54

Meppen U19 attack 1.69 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more
56%
level
19%
Meppen U19 scores more
25%

Werder Bremen U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Werder
Meppen
C. Makiadi
Manager: C. Makiadi
C. Stammermann
Manager: C. Stammermann

Match Recap: Werder Bremen U19 vs Meppen U19

Werder Bremen U19 beat Meppen U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 28, 2026.