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Meppen U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Meppen U19
Meppen U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Werder Bremen U19
Werder Bremen U19
5/2/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Meppen U1937%
×Draw21%
Werder Bremen U1942%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meppen U19
1.84
Werder Bremen U19
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 71 away

creates per match

Meppen U19
1.77
Werder Bremen U19
2.21

allows per match

Meppen U19
1.75
Werder Bremen U19
1.92

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par
Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw
58%
Meppen U19 or Werder Bremen U19
79%
Draw or Werder Bremen U19
63%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+
19%
Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals
84%
Meppen U19 2+ goals
55%
Meppen U19 3+ goals
28%
Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals
86%
Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals
59%
Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.92 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.84

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.21 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Meppen U19 scores more
37%
level
21%
Werder Bremen U19 scores more
42%

Werder Bremen U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Meppen
Werder
C. Stammermann
Manager: C. Stammermann
C. Makiadi
Manager: C. Makiadi

U19 Bundesliga: Meppen U19 0–1 Werder Bremen U19

Werder Bremen U19 beat Meppen U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 2, 2026.