Werder Bremen U19 2–3 Hallescher FC U19

Werder Bremen U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Hallescher FC U19

W. Reincke 34' (pen), 9' (pen)

M. Hennig 68'

L. Halangk 62', 10'

4/23/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 18Weserstadion Platz 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Werder Bremen U1960%

×Draw19%

Hallescher FC U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder Bremen U19Expected goals in this matchHallescher FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.44

Werder Bremen U19

2.52

Hallescher FC U19

1.44

Werder Bremen U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 37 away

2.53

creates per match

1.24

1.65

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19

2.53

Hallescher FC U19

1.24

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19

1.65

Hallescher FC U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw

79%

Werder Bremen U19 or Hallescher FC U19

81%

Draw or Hallescher FC U19

40%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

39%

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

92%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

71%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

45%

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

76%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

42%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.65 · 72 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.53 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.52

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

21%

Werder Bremen U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

W. ReinckePenalty

10'

L. Halangk

26'

L. Urban← M. Richter

34'

W. ReinckePenalty

58'

L. Vujanic← L. Lippoldt

58'

T. Koczulap← D. Keller

62'

L. Halangk

63'

L. Schierenbeck← E. Mekic

68'

M. Hennig

73'

K. Keršys← R. Schwarz

77'

S. Abbey← D. Kasper

80'

M. Khalil← M. Hennig

90+2'

T. Zorn← L. Halangk

Werder

Hallescher

Bendel

Kambamba

Griebsch

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: C. Brand

26'▲L. Urban←▼M. Richter

63'▲L. Schierenbeck←▼E. Mekic

73'▲K. Keršys←▼R. Schwarz

77'▲S. Abbey←▼D. Kasper

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

UrbanSchierenbeckKeršysAbbeyNeyFenski

Manager: M. Buszkowiak

58'▲L. Vujanic←▼L. Lippoldt

58'▲T. Koczulap←▼D. Keller

80'▲M. Khalil←▼M. Hennig

90+2'▲T. Zorn←▼L. Halangk

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

VujanicKoczulapKhalilZornNeckeHöferHaensch