Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Werder Bremen U19 vs Hallescher FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Werder Bremen U19
Werder Bremen U19
CANC
10:00
Hallescher FC U19
Hallescher FC U19
11/29/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 8Weserstadion Platz 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Werder Bremen U1960%
×Draw19%
Hallescher FC U1921%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werder Bremen U19
2.52
Hallescher FC U19
1.44

Werder Bremen U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 37 away

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19
2.53
Hallescher FC U19
1.24

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19
1.65
Hallescher FC U19
2.51

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par
Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw
79%
Werder Bremen U19 or Hallescher FC U19
81%
Draw or Hallescher FC U19
40%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+
39%
Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals
92%
Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals
71%
Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals
45%
Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals
76%
Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals
42%
Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.65 · 72 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.53 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.52

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more
60%
level
19%
Hallescher FC U19 scores more
21%

Werder Bremen U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Werder Bremen U19 host Hallescher FC U19

November 29, 2020: Werder Bremen U19 take on Hallescher FC U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Werder Bremen U19 host Hallescher FC U19 at Weserstadion Platz 12.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.