Werder Bremen U19 0–1 Dynamo Dresden U19

Werder Bremen U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Dresden U19

L. Krause 70'

8/27/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 4Weserstadion Platz 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Werder Bremen U1950%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Dresden U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder Bremen U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.60

Werder Bremen U19

2.15

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.60

Werder Bremen U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 80 away

2.53

creates per match

1.55

1.65

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19

2.53

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19

1.65

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw

71%

Werder Bremen U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

79%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

50%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

30%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

88%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

63%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

36%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

80%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

47%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.65 · 72 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.53 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.15

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

29%

Werder Bremen U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

B. Mashollaj← J. Hofmann

54'

B. Kummerow← C. Tölg

59'

J. Beckert← C. Alberts

70'

L. Krause

74'

C. Förster← L. Krause

74'

N. Meurer← J. Zickler

77'

M. Hathaway

81'

Y. Ranon← P. Mbock

82'

O. Ohnesorge← A. Hradiský

Werder

Dynamo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Makiadi

54'▲B. Mashollaj←▼J. Hofmann

59'▲J. Beckert←▼C. Alberts

81'▲Y. Ranon←▼P. Mbock

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

MashollajBeckertRanonIhenduSchefflerMeyerBaum

Manager: W. Weiße

54'▲B. Kummerow←▼C. Tölg

74'▲C. Förster←▼L. Krause

74'▲N. Meurer←▼J. Zickler

82'▲O. Ohnesorge←▼A. Hradiský

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

KummerowFörsterMeurerOhnesorgeEndmannSeifertRaschke

U19 Bundesliga: Werder Bremen U19 0–1 Dynamo Dresden U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat Werder Bremen U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 27, 2023.

Goals: L. Krause (70').

The match was played at Weserstadion Platz 12 in Bremen.

Werder Bremen U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Werder Bremen U19 0–1 Dynamo Dresden U19