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Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Dynamo Dresden U19
Dynamo Dresden U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Werder Bremen U19
Werder Bremen U19
2/18/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 17Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo KR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1943%
×Draw21%
Werder Bremen U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Dresden U19
2.08
Werder Bremen U19
1.89

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 70 away

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19
2.21
Werder Bremen U19
2.19

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19
1.58
Werder Bremen U19
1.94

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par
Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw
64%
Dynamo Dresden U19 or Werder Bremen U19
79%
Draw or Werder Bremen U19
57%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+
24%
Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals
87%
Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals
61%
Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals
34%
Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals
85%
Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals
56%
Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.94 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.21 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.08

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.19 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more
43%
level
21%
Werder Bremen U19 scores more
36%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden U19 2–3 Werder Bremen U19

Werder Bremen U19 beat Dynamo Dresden U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo KR in Dresden.