Werder Bremen III 4–2 Oberneuland: Result & Stats

Werder Bremen III

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Oberneuland

11/30/2025

League #749 · Bremen - 15Marko Mock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Werder Bremen III27%

×Draw18%

Oberneuland56%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder Bremen IIIExpected goals in this matchOberneuland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

3.00

Werder Bremen III

2.08

Oberneuland

3.00

Oberneuland creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

2.25

creates per match

3.00

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Werder Bremen III

2.25

Oberneuland

3.00

allows per match

Werder Bremen III

3.00

Oberneuland

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen III+0.00on par

Oberneuland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen III ↓

Oberneuland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Werder Bremen III or draw

44%

Werder Bremen III or Oberneuland

82%

Draw or Oberneuland

73%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen III wins by 2+

13%

Oberneuland wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Werder Bremen III 1+ goals

87%

Werder Bremen III 2+ goals

61%

Werder Bremen III 3+ goals

34%

Oberneuland 1+ goals

95%

Oberneuland 2+ goals

79%

Oberneuland 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen III (draw refunded)

32%

Oberneuland (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen III at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Oberneuland away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen III attack 2.25 + Oberneuland defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.08

Oberneuland attack 3.00 + Werder Bremen III defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Werder Bremen III scores more

27%

level

18%

Oberneuland scores more

56%

Oberneuland at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Oberneuland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff