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Oberneuland vs Werder Bremen III — League #749 2026

Oberneuland
Oberneuland
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Werder Bremen III
Werder Bremen III
D. Nukic 62'
L. Trebin 45+2'
T. Trebin 36'
B. Lambers 39'
L. Kramer 36'
3/17/2023League #749League #749 · Bremen - 23Marko Mock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oberneuland62%
×Draw18%
Werder Bremen III21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberneuland
2.77
Werder Bremen III
1.58

Oberneuland creates 75% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Oberneuland
2.55
Werder Bremen III
1.33

allows per match

Oberneuland
1.82
Werder Bremen III
3.00

finishing

Oberneuland+0.00on par
Werder Bremen III+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberneuland ↓

Werder Bremen III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Oberneuland or draw
79%
Oberneuland or Werder Bremen III
82%
Draw or Werder Bremen III
38%

Winning margin

Oberneuland wins by 2+
42%
Werder Bremen III wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oberneuland 1+ goals
94%
Oberneuland 2+ goals
76%
Oberneuland 3+ goals
51%
Werder Bremen III 1+ goals
79%
Werder Bremen III 2+ goals
47%
Werder Bremen III 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Oberneuland (draw refunded)
75%
Werder Bremen III (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberneuland at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Werder Bremen III away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberneuland attack 2.55 + Werder Bremen III defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.77

Werder Bremen III attack 1.33 + Oberneuland defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oberneuland scores more
62%
level
18%
Werder Bremen III scores more
21%

Oberneuland at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oberneuland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
L. Kramer
36'
T. Trebin
39'
B. Lambers
45+2'
L. Trebin
62'
D. Nukic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberneuland vs Werder Bremen III

Oberneuland beat Werder Bremen III 3-2 in League #749 on March 17, 2023.

Goals: L. Kramer (36'), T. Trebin (36'), B. Lambers (39'), L. Trebin (45+2'), D. Nukic (62').

The match was played at Marko Mock Arena in Bremen.