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Wels vs Vortuna Bad Leonfelden — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Wels
Wels
FT
1 – 4
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
8/26/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wels29%
×Draw21%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.65
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
2.19

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Wels
1.27
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.77

allows per match

Wels
2.60
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
2.02

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Wels or draw
50%
Wels or Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
79%
Draw or Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
71%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
14%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
81%
Wels 2+ goals
49%
Wels 3+ goals
23%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1+ goals
89%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2+ goals
64%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
37%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.60 · 30 matches

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.02 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.27 + Vortuna Bad Leonfelden defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden attack 1.77 + Wels defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wels scores more
29%
level
21%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden scores more
50%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vortuna Bad Leonfelden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wels vs Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden beat Wels 4-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.