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Vortuna Bad Leonfelden vs Wels — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
FT
6 – 0
Wels
Wels
3/22/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 19Sportplatz Bad Leonfelden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden73%
×Draw15%
Wels12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
2.76
Wels
1.04

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden creates 165% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 29 away

creates per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.80
Wels
0.59

allows per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.50
Wels
3.72

finishing

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or draw
88%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or Wels
85%
Draw or Wels
27%

Winning margin

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden wins by 2+
52%
Wels wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1+ goals
94%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2+ goals
76%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3+ goals
51%
Wels 1+ goals
65%
Wels 2+ goals
28%
Wels 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (draw refunded)
86%
Wels (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Wels away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden attack 1.80 + Wels defence 3.72 → ÷2 → 2.76

Wels attack 0.59 + Vortuna Bad Leonfelden defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden scores more
73%
level
15%
Wels scores more
12%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Vortuna Bad Leonfelden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 6–0 Wels

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden beat Wels 6-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bad Leonfelden in Bad Leonfelden.