Wels 2–0 Völkermarkt: Result & Stats

Wels

FT

2 – 0

Völkermarkt

10/26/2018

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 14HUBER Arena (Wels)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wels42%

×Draw22%

Völkermarkt36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WelsExpected goals in this matchVölkermarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.71

Wels

1.85

Völkermarkt

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

1.17

creates per match

0.93

2.48

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Wels

1.17

Völkermarkt

0.93

allows per match

Wels

2.48

Völkermarkt

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wels+0.00on par

Völkermarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Völkermarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Wels or draw

64%

Wels or Völkermarkt

78%

Draw or Völkermarkt

58%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+

22%

Völkermarkt wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals

84%

Wels 2+ goals

55%

Wels 3+ goals

28%

Völkermarkt 1+ goals

82%

Völkermarkt 2+ goals

51%

Völkermarkt 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)

54%

Völkermarkt (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Völkermarkt away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Völkermarkt defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.85

Völkermarkt attack 0.93 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wels scores more

42%

level

22%

Völkermarkt scores more

36%

Wels at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff