Völkermarkt 2–0 Wels: Result & Stats

Völkermarkt

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Wels

5/31/2019

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 29Lilienberg-Arena (Völkermarkt)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Völkermarkt45%

×Draw21%

Wels33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VölkermarktExpected goals in this matchWels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.71

Völkermarkt

2.01

Wels

1.71

Völkermarkt creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

1.13

creates per match

1.09

2.33

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

Völkermarkt

1.13

Wels

1.09

allows per match

Völkermarkt

2.33

Wels

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Völkermarkt+0.00on par

Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völkermarkt ↓

Wels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Völkermarkt or draw

67%

Völkermarkt or Wels

79%

Draw or Wels

55%

Winning margin

Völkermarkt wins by 2+

25%

Wels wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Völkermarkt 1+ goals

87%

Völkermarkt 2+ goals

59%

Völkermarkt 3+ goals

32%

Wels 1+ goals

82%

Wels 2+ goals

51%

Wels 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Völkermarkt (draw refunded)

57%

Wels (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völkermarkt at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völkermarkt attack 1.13 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.01

Wels attack 1.09 + Völkermarkt defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Völkermarkt scores more

45%

level

21%

Wels scores more

33%

Völkermarkt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Völkermarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff