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Wels vs Treibach — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wels
Wels
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Treibach
Treibach
5/13/2022Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 29HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wels41%
×Draw22%
Treibach37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.86
Treibach
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 61 away

creates per match

Wels
1.17
Treibach
1.05

allows per match

Wels
2.48
Treibach
2.56

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Treibach+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Treibach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Wels or draw
63%
Wels or Treibach
78%
Draw or Treibach
59%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
22%
Treibach wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
84%
Wels 2+ goals
55%
Wels 3+ goals
28%
Treibach 1+ goals
83%
Treibach 2+ goals
53%
Treibach 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
52%
Treibach (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Treibach away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Treibach defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.86

Treibach attack 1.05 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wels scores more
41%
level
22%
Treibach scores more
37%

Wels at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Wels 5–2 Treibach

Wels beat Treibach 5-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.