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Treibach vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Treibach
Treibach
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Wels
Wels
10/1/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 12Turnerwald-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Treibach55%
×Draw20%
Wels25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treibach
2.25
Wels
1.47

Treibach creates 53% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 46 away

creates per match

Treibach
1.62
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Treibach
1.84
Wels
2.89

finishing

Treibach+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treibach ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Treibach or draw
75%
Treibach or Wels
80%
Draw or Wels
45%

Winning margin

Treibach wins by 2+
34%
Wels wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Treibach 1+ goals
89%
Treibach 2+ goals
65%
Treibach 3+ goals
39%
Wels 1+ goals
77%
Wels 2+ goals
43%
Wels 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Treibach (draw refunded)
69%
Wels (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treibach at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.84 · 61 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treibach attack 1.62 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.25

Wels attack 1.09 + Treibach defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Treibach scores more
55%
level
20%
Wels scores more
25%

Treibach at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Treibach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Treibach 2 – 1 Wels

Treibach beat Wels 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 1, 2021.

The match was played at Turnerwald-Stadion in Althofen.