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Wels vs Pregarten — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Wels
Wels
FT
1 – 2
Pregarten
Pregarten
3/2/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wels32%
×Draw23%
Pregarten46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.51
Pregarten
1.85

Pregarten creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 89 away

creates per match

Wels
1.27
Pregarten
1.09

allows per match

Wels
2.60
Pregarten
1.75

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Pregarten+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Pregarten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Wels or draw
54%
Wels or Pregarten
77%
Draw or Pregarten
68%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
15%
Pregarten wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
78%
Wels 2+ goals
44%
Wels 3+ goals
19%
Pregarten 1+ goals
84%
Pregarten 2+ goals
55%
Pregarten 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
41%
Pregarten (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.60 · 30 matches

Pregarten away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.75 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.27 + Pregarten defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Pregarten attack 1.09 + Wels defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wels scores more
32%
level
23%
Pregarten scores more
46%

Pregarten at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pregarten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Wels 1–2 Pregarten

Pregarten beat Wels 2-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.