Pregarten 2–0 Wels: Result & Stats

Pregarten

FT

2 – 0

Wels

8/5/2023

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 1Kornspitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pregarten70%

×Draw16%

Wels14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PregartenExpected goals in this matchWels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.10

Pregarten

2.66

Wels

1.10

Pregarten creates 142% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 29 away

1.59

creates per match

0.59

1.61

allows per match

3.72

creates per match

Pregarten

1.59

Wels

0.59

allows per match

Pregarten

1.61

Wels

3.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pregarten+0.00on par

Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pregarten ↓

Wels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Pregarten or draw

86%

Pregarten or Wels

84%

Draw or Wels

30%

Winning margin

Pregarten wins by 2+

49%

Wels wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pregarten 1+ goals

93%

Pregarten 2+ goals

74%

Pregarten 3+ goals

49%

Wels 1+ goals

67%

Wels 2+ goals

30%

Wels 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pregarten (draw refunded)

84%

Wels (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pregarten at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

Wels away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pregarten attack 1.59 + Wels defence 3.72 → ÷2 → 2.66

Wels attack 0.59 + Pregarten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Pregarten scores more

70%

level

16%

Wels scores more

14%

Pregarten at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Pregarten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff