Wels 1–4 Ostermiething: Result & Stats

Wels

FT

1 – 4

Ostermiething

9/9/2023

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 6HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wels30%

×Draw21%

Ostermiething50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WelsExpected goals in this matchOstermiething

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.19

Wels

1.66

Ostermiething

2.19

Ostermiething creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

1.27

creates per match

1.77

2.60

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Wels

1.27

Ostermiething

1.77

allows per match

Wels

2.60

Ostermiething

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wels+0.00on par

Ostermiething+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Ostermiething →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Wels or draw

50%

Wels or Ostermiething

79%

Draw or Ostermiething

70%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+

14%

Ostermiething wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals

81%

Wels 2+ goals

49%

Wels 3+ goals

23%

Ostermiething 1+ goals

89%

Ostermiething 2+ goals

64%

Ostermiething 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)

37%

Ostermiething (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.60 · 30 matches

Ostermiething away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.27 + Ostermiething defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ostermiething attack 1.77 + Wels defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wels scores more

30%

level

21%

Ostermiething scores more

50%

Ostermiething at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ostermiething will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff