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Ostermiething vs Wels — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Ostermiething
Ostermiething
FT
3 – 1
Wels
Wels
4/5/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 21Stampfl-Bau Arena Ostermiething

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ostermiething70%
×Draw16%
Wels15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostermiething
2.91
Wels
1.29

Ostermiething creates 126% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ostermiething
2.10
Wels
0.59

allows per match

Ostermiething
2.00
Wels
3.72

finishing

Ostermiething+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostermiething ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Ostermiething or draw
85%
Ostermiething or Wels
84%
Draw or Wels
30%

Winning margin

Ostermiething wins by 2+
50%
Wels wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ostermiething 1+ goals
94%
Ostermiething 2+ goals
78%
Ostermiething 3+ goals
54%
Wels 1+ goals
72%
Wels 2+ goals
37%
Wels 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ostermiething (draw refunded)
83%
Wels (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostermiething at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

Wels away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostermiething attack 2.10 + Wels defence 3.72 → ÷2 → 2.91

Wels attack 0.59 + Ostermiething defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ostermiething scores more
70%
level
16%
Wels scores more
15%

Ostermiething at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ostermiething will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Ostermiething 3–1 Wels

Ostermiething beat Wels 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stampfl-Bau Arena Ostermiething in Ostermiething.