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Wels vs Lendorf — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wels
Wels
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lendorf
Lendorf
5/10/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 25HUBER Arena (Wels)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wels46%
×Draw21%
Lendorf33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
2.05
Lendorf
1.71

Wels creates 20% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wels
1.17
Lendorf
0.93

allows per match

Wels
2.48
Lendorf
2.93

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Lendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Lendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Wels or draw
67%
Wels or Lendorf
79%
Draw or Lendorf
54%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
26%
Lendorf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
87%
Wels 2+ goals
61%
Wels 3+ goals
33%
Lendorf 1+ goals
82%
Lendorf 2+ goals
51%
Lendorf 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
58%
Lendorf (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Lendorf away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Lendorf defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.05

Lendorf attack 0.93 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wels scores more
46%
level
21%
Lendorf scores more
33%

Wels at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wels 0 – 2 Lendorf

Lendorf beat Wels 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on May 10, 2019.

The match was played at HUBER Arena (Wels).