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Lendorf vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Lendorf
Lendorf
FT
2 – 2
Wels
Wels
9/28/2018Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 10Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena (Lendorf)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lendorf47%
×Draw21%
Wels32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lendorf
2.04
Wels
1.65

Lendorf creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lendorf
1.20
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Lendorf
2.20
Wels
2.89

finishing

Lendorf+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lendorf ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lendorf or draw
68%
Lendorf or Wels
79%
Draw or Wels
53%

Winning margin

Lendorf wins by 2+
27%
Wels wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lendorf 1+ goals
87%
Lendorf 2+ goals
60%
Lendorf 3+ goals
33%
Wels 1+ goals
81%
Wels 2+ goals
49%
Wels 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lendorf (draw refunded)
60%
Wels (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lendorf at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lendorf attack 1.20 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.04

Wels attack 1.09 + Lendorf defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lendorf scores more
47%
level
21%
Wels scores more
32%

Lendorf at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lendorf vs Wels

Lendorf and Wels drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 28, 2018.

The match was played at Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena (Lendorf).