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Wels vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wels
Wels
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Gurten
Gurten
10/2/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 8HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wels22%
×Draw21%
Gurten57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.17
Gurten
2.03

Gurten creates 74% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 106 away

creates per match

Wels
1.17
Gurten
1.58

allows per match

Wels
2.48
Gurten
1.18

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wels or draw
43%
Wels or Gurten
79%
Draw or Gurten
78%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
8%
Gurten wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
69%
Wels 2+ goals
33%
Wels 3+ goals
11%
Gurten 1+ goals
87%
Gurten 2+ goals
60%
Gurten 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
27%
Gurten (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gurten attack 1.58 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wels scores more
22%
level
21%
Gurten scores more
57%

Gurten at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Wels 2–2 Gurten

Wels and Gurten drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 2, 2020.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.