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Gurten vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wels
Wels
9/18/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 10Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gurten67%
×Draw18%
Wels14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
2.31
Wels
0.96

Gurten creates 141% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 46 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.74
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Gurten
0.82
Wels
2.89

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
86%
Gurten or Wels
82%
Draw or Wels
33%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
44%
Wels wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
90%
Gurten 2+ goals
67%
Gurten 3+ goals
40%
Wels 1+ goals
62%
Wels 2+ goals
25%
Wels 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
82%
Wels (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.31

Wels attack 1.09 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gurten scores more
67%
level
18%
Wels scores more
14%

Gurten at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Gurten 4–0 Wels

Gurten beat Wels 4-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten in Gurten.