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Wels vs Grün Weiß Micheldorf — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Wels
Wels
FT
2 – 2
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
3/24/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 19HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wels34%
×Draw22%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.70
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.98

Grün Weiß Micheldorf creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 89 away

creates per match

Wels
1.27
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.36

allows per match

Wels
2.60
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
2.12

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Grün Weiß Micheldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Wels or draw
55%
Wels or Grün Weiß Micheldorf
78%
Draw or Grün Weiß Micheldorf
66%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
17%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
82%
Wels 2+ goals
51%
Wels 3+ goals
24%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
86%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
59%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
43%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.60 · 30 matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.12 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.27 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.36 + Wels defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wels scores more
34%
level
22%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
45%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Grün Weiß Micheldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wels vs Grün Weiß Micheldorf

Wels and Grün Weiß Micheldorf drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 24, 2023.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.