Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs Wels — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
FT
1 – 0
Wels
Wels
11/4/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 14Haidlmair Arena Micheldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf73%
×Draw15%
Wels12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
2.81
Wels
1.06

Grün Weiß Micheldorf creates 165% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 29 away

creates per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.91
Wels
0.59

allows per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.53
Wels
3.72

finishing

Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grün Weiß Micheldorf ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Grün Weiß Micheldorf or draw
88%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf or Wels
85%
Draw or Wels
27%

Winning margin

Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
52%
Wels wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
94%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
76%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
52%
Wels 1+ goals
65%
Wels 2+ goals
29%
Wels 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
86%
Wels (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Wels away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.91 + Wels defence 3.72 → ÷2 → 2.81

Wels attack 0.59 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
73%
level
15%
Wels scores more
12%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Grün Weiß Micheldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs Wels

Grün Weiß Micheldorf beat Wels 1-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Haidlmair Arena Micheldorf in Micheldorf.