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Wels vs Grazer AK — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wels
Wels
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Grazer AK
Grazer AK
9/8/2018Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 7HUBER Arena (Wels)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wels18%
×Draw20%
Grazer AK63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.08
Grazer AK
2.21

Grazer AK creates 105% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wels
1.17
Grazer AK
1.93

allows per match

Wels
2.48
Grazer AK
1.00

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Grazer AK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Grazer AK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wels or draw
37%
Wels or Grazer AK
80%
Draw or Grazer AK
82%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
6%
Grazer AK wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
66%
Wels 2+ goals
29%
Wels 3+ goals
10%
Grazer AK 1+ goals
89%
Grazer AK 2+ goals
65%
Grazer AK 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
22%
Grazer AK (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Grazer AK away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Grazer AK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Grazer AK attack 1.93 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Wels scores more
18%
level
20%
Grazer AK scores more
63%

Grazer AK at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Wels 0–6 Grazer AK

Grazer AK beat Wels 6-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at HUBER Arena (Wels).