Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grazer AK vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Grazer AK
Grazer AK
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wels
Wels
4/19/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 22Sportzentrum Graz-Weinzödl (Graz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Grazer AK75%
×Draw15%
Wels11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grazer AK
2.81
Wels
0.98

Grazer AK creates 187% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Grazer AK
2.73
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Grazer AK
0.87
Wels
2.89

finishing

Grazer AK+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grazer AK ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Grazer AK or draw
89%
Grazer AK or Wels
85%
Draw or Wels
25%

Winning margin

Grazer AK wins by 2+
54%
Wels wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Grazer AK 1+ goals
94%
Grazer AK 2+ goals
76%
Grazer AK 3+ goals
52%
Wels 1+ goals
62%
Wels 2+ goals
26%
Wels 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Grazer AK (draw refunded)
88%
Wels (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grazer AK at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grazer AK attack 2.73 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.81

Wels attack 1.09 + Grazer AK defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Grazer AK scores more
75%
level
15%
Wels scores more
11%

Grazer AK at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grazer AK 5 – 0 Wels

Grazer AK beat Wels 5-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 19, 2019.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Graz-Weinzödl (Graz).