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Welling United vs Maidstone Utd — League #51 2026

Welling United
Welling United
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd
4/18/2025League #51League #51 · South - 44J Hearnden Skip Hire Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Welling United4%
×Draw19%
Maidstone Utd77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welling United
0.25
Maidstone Utd
1.83

Maidstone Utd creates 632% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Welling United
0.50
Maidstone Utd
1.67

allows per match

Welling United
2.00
Maidstone Utd
0.00

finishing

Welling United+0.00on par
Maidstone Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welling United ↓

Maidstone Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–123%
0–221%
0–313%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (23%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Welling United or draw
23%
Welling United or Maidstone Utd
81%
Draw or Maidstone Utd
96%

Winning margin

Welling United wins by 2+
0%
Maidstone Utd wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Welling United 1+ goals
22%
Welling United 2+ goals
3%
Welling United 3+ goals
0%
Maidstone Utd 1+ goals
84%
Maidstone Utd 2+ goals
54%
Maidstone Utd 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Welling United (draw refunded)
5%
Maidstone Utd (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welling United at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Maidstone Utd away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welling United attack 0.50 + Maidstone Utd defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.25

Maidstone Utd attack 1.67 + Welling United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Welling United scores more
4%
level
19%
Maidstone Utd scores more
77%

Maidstone Utd at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Maidstone Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: Welling United 0–4 Maidstone Utd

Maidstone Utd beat Welling United 4-0 in League #51 on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at J Hearnden Skip Hire Community Stadium in Welling, Kent.