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Maidstone Utd vs Welling United — League #51 2026

Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Welling United
Welling United
1/1/2025League #51League #51 · South - 24Gallagher Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maidstone Utd67%
×Draw21%
Welling United12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maidstone Utd
1.88
Welling United
0.63

Maidstone Utd creates 198% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Maidstone Utd
1.25
Welling United
0.75

allows per match

Maidstone Utd
0.50
Welling United
2.50

finishing

Maidstone Utd+0.00on par
Welling United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maidstone Utd ↓

Welling United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Maidstone Utd or draw
88%
Maidstone Utd or Welling United
79%
Draw or Welling United
33%

Winning margin

Maidstone Utd wins by 2+
41%
Welling United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maidstone Utd 1+ goals
85%
Maidstone Utd 2+ goals
56%
Maidstone Utd 3+ goals
29%
Welling United 1+ goals
47%
Welling United 2+ goals
13%
Welling United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Maidstone Utd (draw refunded)
85%
Welling United (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maidstone Utd at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Welling United away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maidstone Utd attack 1.25 + Welling United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Welling United attack 0.75 + Maidstone Utd defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Maidstone Utd scores more
67%
level
21%
Welling United scores more
12%

Maidstone Utd at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Maidstone Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maidstone Utd vs Welling United

Maidstone Utd beat Welling United 1-0 in League #51 on January 1, 2025.

The match was played at Gallagher Stadium in Maidstone, Kent.