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Welayta Dicha vs Shashemene Kenema — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
3/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Welayta Dicha39%
×Draw31%
Shashemene Kenema30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
1.07
Shashemene Kenema
0.91

Welayta Dicha creates 18% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Shashemene Kenema
0.87

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Shashemene Kenema
1.27

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Shashemene Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
70%
Welayta Dicha or Shashemene Kenema
69%
Draw or Shashemene Kenema
61%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
16%
Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
66%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
29%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
9%
Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
60%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
23%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
56%
Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Shashemene Kenema away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.87 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
39%
level
31%
Shashemene Kenema scores more
30%

Welayta Dicha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Welayta Dicha 1–2 Shashemene Kenema

Shashemene Kenema beat Welayta Dicha 2-1 in Premier League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.