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Shashemene Kenema vs Welayta Dicha — Premier League 2019

Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
10/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shashemene Kenema24%
×Draw29%
Welayta Dicha47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shashemene Kenema
0.83
Welayta Dicha
1.29

Welayta Dicha creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Shashemene Kenema
0.60
Welayta Dicha
1.06

allows per match

Shashemene Kenema
1.53
Welayta Dicha
1.07

finishing

Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par
Welayta Dicha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shashemene Kenema ↓

Welayta Dicha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shashemene Kenema or draw
53%
Shashemene Kenema or Welayta Dicha
71%
Draw or Welayta Dicha
76%

Winning margin

Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
8%
Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
56%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
20%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
5%
Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
72%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
37%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
34%
Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shashemene Kenema at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Welayta Dicha away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.60 + Welayta Dicha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.83

Welayta Dicha attack 1.06 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shashemene Kenema scores more
24%
level
29%
Welayta Dicha scores more
47%

Welayta Dicha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shashemene Kenema 0–1 Welayta Dicha

Welayta Dicha beat Shashemene Kenema 1-0 in Premier League on October 6, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.