Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Welayta Dicha vs Legetafo Legedadi — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
A. Achiso 49'
S. Mengistu 37'
5/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Welayta Dicha46%
×Draw26%
Legetafo Legedadi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
1.44
Legetafo Legedadi
1.04

Welayta Dicha creates 38% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 14 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Legetafo Legedadi
1.14

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Legetafo Legedadi
2.00

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
73%
Welayta Dicha or Legetafo Legedadi
74%
Draw or Legetafo Legedadi
54%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
23%
Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
76%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
42%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
18%
Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
65%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
28%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
63%
Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
46%
level
26%
Legetafo Legedadi scores more
27%

Welayta Dicha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
S. Mengistu
37'
S. Mengistu
39'
K. Zelalem
41'
N. Gebreselassie
46'
S. Awol← S. Awol
46'
T. Aniley← T. Aniley
49'
A. Achiso
58'
M. Woldegiorgis
67'
Y. Elias← Y. Elias
67'
B. Fikre← B. Fikre
74'
M. Bogale
83'
M. Nicole← M. Nicole

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Welayta Dicha 2 – 0 Legetafo Legedadi

Welayta Dicha beat Legetafo Legedadi 2-0 in Premier League on May 1, 2023.

Goals: S. Mengistu (37'), A. Achiso (49').

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.