Legetafo Legedadi 3–4 Welayta Dicha: Result & Stats

Legetafo Legedadi

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Welayta Dicha

A. Arbo 77', 41'

C. Damtew 61'

B. Woldeyohannes 82'

K. Zelalem 75'

A. Zelalem 70'

S. Mengistu 34'

12/26/2022

Premier League · Round 7Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi23%

×Draw25%

Welayta Dicha53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legetafo LegedadiExpected goals in this matchWelayta Dicha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.63

Legetafo Legedadi

0.98

Welayta Dicha

1.63

Welayta Dicha creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

0.88

creates per match

1.06

2.19

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi

0.88

Welayta Dicha

1.06

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi

2.19

Welayta Dicha

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Welayta Dicha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw

47%

Legetafo Legedadi or Welayta Dicha

75%

Draw or Welayta Dicha

77%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+

8%

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals

62%

Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals

26%

Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals

8%

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals

80%

Welayta Dicha 2+ goals

48%

Welayta Dicha 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)

30%

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Welayta Dicha away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Welayta Dicha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Welayta Dicha attack 1.06 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more

23%

level

25%

Welayta Dicha scores more

53%

Welayta Dicha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

S. Mengistu

35'

41'

A. Arbo

61'

C. Damtew

61'

C. Damtew

65'

B. Tessema← B. Tessema

67'

A. Zelalem← A. Zelalem

70'

A. Zelalem

73'

T. Aniley

75'

K. Zelalem

77'

A. Arbo

82'

B. Woldeyohannes

88'

90'

D. Kelemework← D. Kelemework

90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff