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Welayta Dicha vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
5/14/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Welayta Dicha27%
×Draw31%
Kedus Giorgis42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
0.82
Kedus Giorgis
1.12

Kedus Giorgis creates 37% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Kedus Giorgis
0.76

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
58%
Welayta Dicha or Kedus Giorgis
69%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
73%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
9%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
56%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
20%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
5%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
67%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
31%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
39%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
27%
level
31%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
42%

Kedus Giorgis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Welayta Dicha 0–0 Kedus Giorgis

Welayta Dicha and Kedus Giorgis drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 14, 2026.