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Kedus Giorgis vs Welayta Dicha — Premier League 2019

Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
3/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kedus Giorgis42%
×Draw29%
Welayta Dicha28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedus Giorgis
1.20
Welayta Dicha
0.93

Kedus Giorgis creates 29% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis
1.33
Welayta Dicha
1.06

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis
0.79
Welayta Dicha
1.07

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par
Welayta Dicha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Welayta Dicha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw
72%
Kedus Giorgis or Welayta Dicha
71%
Draw or Welayta Dicha
58%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
18%
Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
70%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
34%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
12%
Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
61%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
24%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
60%
Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Welayta Dicha away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Welayta Dicha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Welayta Dicha attack 1.06 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more
42%
level
29%
Welayta Dicha scores more
28%

Kedus Giorgis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kedus Giorgis vs Welayta Dicha

Welayta Dicha beat Kedus Giorgis 1-0 in Premier League on March 6, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.