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Welayta Dicha vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
10/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Sodo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Welayta Dicha37%
×Draw31%
Dire Dawa Kenema32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
1.06
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 100 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
68%
Welayta Dicha or Dire Dawa Kenema
69%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
63%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
15%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
65%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
29%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
9%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
62%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
25%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
53%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
37%
level
31%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
32%

Welayta Dicha at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Welayta Dicha 0–1 Dire Dawa Kenema

Dire Dawa Kenema beat Welayta Dicha 1-0 in Premier League on October 23, 2025.

The match was played at Sodo Stadium in Sodo.