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Dire Dawa Kenema vs Welayta Dicha — Premier League 2019

Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
2/26/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema31%
×Draw29%
Welayta Dicha40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.02
Welayta Dicha
1.20

Welayta Dicha creates 18% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97
Welayta Dicha
1.06

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.34
Welayta Dicha
1.07

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par
Welayta Dicha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Welayta Dicha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw
60%
Dire Dawa Kenema or Welayta Dicha
71%
Draw or Welayta Dicha
69%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
12%
Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
64%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
27%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
8%
Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
70%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
34%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
44%
Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Welayta Dicha away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Welayta Dicha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Welayta Dicha attack 1.06 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
31%
level
29%
Welayta Dicha scores more
40%

Welayta Dicha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dire Dawa Kenema 0–2 Welayta Dicha

Welayta Dicha beat Dire Dawa Kenema 2-0 in Premier League on February 26, 2026.