Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Welayta Dicha vs Addis Ababa Ketema — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Addis Ababa Ketema
Addis Ababa Ketema
6/15/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Welayta Dicha36%
×Draw29%
Addis Ababa Ketema35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
1.10
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.20

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.33

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Addis Ababa Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
65%
Welayta Dicha or Addis Ababa Ketema
71%
Draw or Addis Ababa Ketema
64%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
15%
Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
67%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
30%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
10%
Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals
66%
Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals
29%
Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
51%
Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Addis Ababa Ketema away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.20 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
36%
level
29%
Addis Ababa Ketema scores more
35%

Welayta Dicha at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Welayta Dicha 0–1 Addis Ababa Ketema

Addis Ababa Ketema beat Welayta Dicha 1-0 in Premier League on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at Bahir Dar Stadium in Bahir Dar.