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Addis Ababa Ketema vs Welayta Dicha — Premier League 2019

Addis Ababa Ketema
Addis Ababa Ketema
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
2/5/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Addis Ababa Ketema34%
×Draw27%
Welayta Dicha39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.17
Welayta Dicha
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.27
Welayta Dicha
1.06

allows per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.47
Welayta Dicha
1.07

finishing

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par
Welayta Dicha+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Addis Ababa Ketema ↓

Welayta Dicha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Addis Ababa Ketema or draw
61%
Addis Ababa Ketema or Welayta Dicha
73%
Draw or Welayta Dicha
66%

Winning margin

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+
14%
Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals
69%
Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals
33%
Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals
11%
Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
72%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
36%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)
47%
Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Addis Ababa Ketema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Welayta Dicha away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.27 + Welayta Dicha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Welayta Dicha attack 1.06 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more
34%
level
27%
Welayta Dicha scores more
39%

Welayta Dicha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Addis Ababa Ketema vs Welayta Dicha

Welayta Dicha beat Addis Ababa Ketema 2-1 in Premier League on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.