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Weiz vs Union Vöcklamarkt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Weiz
Weiz
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
8/2/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 1Strobl Arena Weiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Weiz53%
×Draw21%
Union Vöcklamarkt26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiz
2.12
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.46

Weiz creates 45% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 91 away

creates per match

Weiz
2.11
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.26

allows per match

Weiz
1.66
Union Vöcklamarkt
2.12

finishing

Weiz+0.00on par
Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiz ↓

Union Vöcklamarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Weiz or draw
74%
Weiz or Union Vöcklamarkt
79%
Draw or Union Vöcklamarkt
47%

Winning margin

Weiz wins by 2+
31%
Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Weiz 1+ goals
88%
Weiz 2+ goals
62%
Weiz 3+ goals
35%
Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
77%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
43%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Weiz (draw refunded)
66%
Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiz at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.66 · 107 matches

Union Vöcklamarkt away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiz attack 2.11 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.12

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.26 + Weiz defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Weiz scores more
53%
level
21%
Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
26%

Weiz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Weiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weiz vs Union Vöcklamarkt

Union Vöcklamarkt beat Weiz 3-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Strobl Arena Weiz in Weiz.