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Union Vöcklamarkt vs Weiz — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Weiz
Weiz
2/28/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 16BLACK CREVICE - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Union Vöcklamarkt47%
×Draw22%
Weiz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.89
Weiz
1.50

Union Vöcklamarkt creates 26% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 104 away

creates per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.70
Weiz
1.71

allows per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.30
Weiz
2.08

finishing

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par
Weiz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Vöcklamarkt ↓

Weiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Union Vöcklamarkt or draw
69%
Union Vöcklamarkt or Weiz
78%
Draw or Weiz
53%

Winning margin

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
26%
Weiz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
85%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
56%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
29%
Weiz 1+ goals
78%
Weiz 2+ goals
44%
Weiz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
60%
Weiz (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Vöcklamarkt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.30 · 91 matches

Weiz away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.08 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.70 + Weiz defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Weiz attack 1.71 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
47%
level
22%
Weiz scores more
31%

Union Vöcklamarkt at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Vöcklamarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Vöcklamarkt vs Weiz

Weiz beat Union Vöcklamarkt 4-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at BLACK CREVICE - Stadion in Vöcklamarkt.